CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Previous Year Page Login

Space Weather ScoreBoard

Past CMEs From 2018:

CME: 2018-11-30T03:00:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2018-12-05T00:00Z	----	----	2018-11-30T19:27Z	100.55	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Leila Mays (GSFC)	Detail
2018-12-05T08:00Z	----	----	2018-12-01T02:50Z	101.17	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)	RWC Jeju (KSWC)	Detail
2018-12-05T13:00Z	----	----	2018-12-03T04:29Z	56.52	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2018-12-06T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	----	10.0	2018-12-04T12:33Z	38.45	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 3.0	Other (SIDC)	Leila Mays (GSFC)	Detail
2018-12-05T12:00Z	----	10.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 3.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2018-09-27T04:54:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source is a filament eruption seen in SDO AIA 304 around 09-27T04:00Z around S40E10. CME is very faint and difficult to measure. Start time may not be accurate. Some small disturbances were seen in the SW data, but nothing clear to determine the arrival of the CME.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2018-09-30T23:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)	----	60.0	2018-09-28T06:00Z	65.00	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2018-10-02T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2018-09-28T20:34Z	81.43	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)	Rachel Broemmelsiek (GSFC)	Detail
2018-10-01T14:30Z	----	60.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2018-08-20T21:24:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2018-08-25T06:00Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -169
Dst min. time: 2018-08-26T07:00Z
CME Note: The CME is associated with a filament eruption occurring around 2018-08-20T18:00Z at N40W05 in SDO 193.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2018-08-25T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-6.00	----	2018-08-21T14:06Z	87.90	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)	Leila Mays (GSFC)	Detail
2018-08-24T21:00Z (-9.0h, +12.0h)	-9.00	90.0	2018-08-21T16:10Z	85.83	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2018-08-24T14:00Z	-16.00	----	2018-08-21T23:25Z	78.58	Max Kp Range: -- - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Leila Mays (GSFC)	Detail
2018-08-25T01:08Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)	-4.87	----	2018-08-22T09:00Z	69.00	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (UoA)	Detail
2018-08-24T23:59Z (-24.0h, +24.0h)	-6.02	80.0	2018-08-22T12:35Z	65.42	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Other (SIDC)	Leila Mays (GSFC)	Detail
2018-08-26T00:30Z (-14.4h, +15.0h)	18.50	100.0	2018-08-22T14:02Z	63.97	----	DBM	Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs)	Detail
2018-08-25T02:06Z	-3.90	90.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.75	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2018-08-19T07:36:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2018-08-24T05:50Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: SIDC: In SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images a very narrow (only around 10 degrees angular width) CME is visible from August 19 7:36UT onwards, directed towards the South-West. It is also visible from Stereo A COR2, also narrow and directed to the South-West from this viewpoint. The arrival time for this CME could have been confused with the arrival time of the 2018-08-20T21:24Z CME.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2018-08-21T23:00Z (-4.0h, +3.0h)	-54.83	----	2018-08-20T05:45Z	96.08	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2018-08-21T23:59Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-53.85	15.0	2018-08-21T13:34Z	64.27	Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 4.0	Other (SIDC)	Leila Mays (GSFC)	Detail
2018-08-21T23:29Z	-54.35	15.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 4.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2018-07-05T04:39:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2018-07-10T11:25Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible in STEREO A COR2 on the W limb. It starts as a slowly brightening near the streamer before the CME is clearly visible. For this reason the start time can be anywhere between 02:39 (labelled by SIDC) and 13:09 (labelled by SWPC).

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2018-07-10T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-11.42	----	2018-07-05T19:05Z	112.33	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2018-07-07T10:00Z	-73.42	2.0	2018-07-05T22:36Z	108.82	Dst min. in nT: -41 Dst min. time: 2018-07-07T22:00Z	Other	WKent Tobiska (SET SWD)	Detail
2018-07-10T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-2.42	5.0	2018-07-06T11:03Z	96.37	Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 5.0	Other (SIDC)	Leila Mays (GSFC)	Detail
2018-07-09T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-17.42	30.0	2018-07-06T18:15Z	89.17	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2018-07-09T09:00Z (-5.0h, +5.0h)	-26.42	----	2018-07-07T12:00Z	71.42	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (UoA)	Detail
2018-07-09T14:00Z	-21.42	----	2018-07-07T14:45Z	68.67	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)	RWC Jeju (KSWC)	Detail
2018-07-07T15:53Z	-67.53	----	2018-07-09T03:19Z	32.10	----	SPM2	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2018-07-10T01:26Z	-9.98	----	2018-07-09T03:22Z	32.05	----	SPM	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2018-07-09T06:39Z	-28.77	12.3333	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2018-03-06T23:54:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Source is a filament lift off best seen in SDO AIA 304 from S10E25 at 2018-03-06T16:30Z. Start time is after the data gap from 2018-03-06T19:39Z to 2018-03-06T23:54Z in STA cor2 imagery. It is not visible in SOHO LASCO C2 or C3 imagery.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2018-03-10T14:00Z	----	10.0	2018-03-07T16:14Z	69.77	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Other (SIDC)	Mary Aronne (GSFC)	Detail
2018-03-10T14:00Z	----	10.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2018-03-05T23:39:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T23:30Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: First seen in STA Cor2 at 2018-03-05T23:39Z, but this is after a data gap from 19:30Z to 23:30Z so the true start time is uncertain. The source is likely the long-duration filling in of the dim CH region visible in the South of AIA 193, centered around longitude -10, beginning around 18:00 on 2018-03-05. The CME is also visible as a faint partial halo to the SW in C2/C3, but not visible in the difference imaging.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2018-03-09T14:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-9.00	5.0	2018-03-06T15:31Z	79.98	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Other (SIDC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2018-03-10T00:00Z	0.50	----	2018-03-06T16:45Z	78.75	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone	Michael GreklekMcKeon (GSFC)	Detail
2018-03-09T10:43Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)	-12.78	50.0	2018-03-07T09:00Z	62.50	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (UoA)	Detail
2018-03-09T18:30Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)	-5.00	----	2018-03-07T15:14Z	56.27	----	DBM	Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs)	Detail
2018-03-09T16:00Z (-8.0h, +10.0h)	-7.50	86.0	2018-03-07T15:16Z	56.23	----	Other	Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs)	Detail
2018-03-08T15:46Z	-31.73	----	2018-03-07T18:37Z	52.88	----	SPM2	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2018-03-09T09:35Z	-13.92	----	2018-03-07T18:38Z	52.87	----	SPM	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2018-03-10T08:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)	8.50	60.0	2018-03-08T01:22Z	46.13	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2018-03-09T14:38Z	-8.87	50.25	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.5	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T07:38Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This partial halo CME is associated with a long duration C1.5 flare peaking at 1:35Z from AR2699.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2018-02-15T11:59Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	4.35	90.0	2018-02-12T14:27Z	65.18	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Other (SIDC)	Leila Mays (GSFC)	Detail
2018-02-15T16:30Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)	8.87	70.0	2018-02-12T16:30Z	63.13	----	DBM	Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ)	Detail
2018-02-15T06:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-0.93	----	2018-02-12T16:33Z	63.08	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)	Mary Aronne (GSFC)	Detail
2018-02-14T22:25Z	-9.22	----	2018-02-12T16:55Z	62.72	----	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2018-02-14T09:00Z	-22.63	----	2018-02-12T19:21Z	60.28	Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Leila Mays (GSFC)	Detail
2018-02-15T06:24Z (-4.0h, +4.0h)	-1.23	----	2018-02-13T07:00Z	48.63	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (UoA)	Detail
2018-02-16T09:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	25.37	70.0	2018-02-13T07:04Z	48.57	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Other (NSSC SEPC)	Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC)	Detail
2018-02-14T18:00Z	-13.63	----	2018-02-13T09:57Z	45.68	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2018-02-15T14:28Z	6.83	----	2018-02-13T10:20Z	45.30	----	ELEvo	Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO)	Detail
2018-02-14T05:00Z	-26.63	----	2018-02-13T11:13Z	44.42	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)	RWC Jeju (KSWC)	Detail
2018-02-15T02:18Z	-5.33	----	2018-02-13T12:10Z	43.47	----	CAT-PUMA	Jiajia Liu (QUB)	Detail
2018-02-15T02:16Z (-14.3h, +10.4h)	-5.37	81.0	2018-02-13T15:27Z	40.18	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)	Michael GreklekMcKeon (GSFC)	Detail
2018-02-15T06:09Z	-1.48	77.75	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 4.6	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail
2018-02-16T04:00Z	20.37	----	2018-02-15T23:59Z	-16.35	Dst min. in nT: -47 Dst min. time: 2018-02-16T16:00Z	Anemomilos	WKent Tobiska (SET SWD)	Detail

Go Back to the Main Page

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement